Prof Carol Chi Ngang
On 12 October 2025, the voting-age population in Cameroun will be congregating at the polling stations for the presidential elections, supposedly to elect a “new” leader to run the country for the next 7 years. Among the approved 12 candidates who will be contesting for the coveted position at the helm of political leadership in the country is incumbent President Paul Biya, who, at 92 years old, has been in power as Head of State for 43 years, not counting his tenure as Prime Minister in Amadou Ahidjo’s government from 1975 to 1982.
Si on t’explique le Cameroun et que tu comprends, ce qu’on n’a pas bien expliqué. This is a common expression in Cameroun, which roughly translates into the fact that, if someone explains Cameroun and you get to understand, it means the person did not explain properly. It drives home the message that the dynamics in Cameroun are so extremely convoluted that no amount of explanation can provide an accurate account of the interwoven complexities that define the country, or maybe, confuse what it actually represents.
In the past couple of decades, Cameroun used to feature regularly on major news headlines for all the good reasons, including being Africa in miniature and, by implication, the melting pot of mesmerising cultures, traditions and geographies; an investment destination of choice on account of incomparable economic stability and policy certainty and, more so, the torrent of football glories that put the country on the global spotlight, melting the hearts of millions of fans across the African continent and around the world. Those good old days are gone.
It is not incomprehensible how soon the impressive narratives about Cameroun quickly shifted in the last couple of years. Cameroun raced to the top for all the wrong reasons, including being among the most corrupt countries in Africa and globally. The football glory and the charm of burgeoning economic performance dissipated, and the country relapsed into uncontrollable pillaging of the economy and, eventually, torn apart by two intractable conflicts in the south-western regions by the Southern Cameroons liberation struggle and in the north, by the Boko Haram insurgency, both of which remain unresolved and have consistently ranked among the most neglected in the world.
Political Leadership and Governance
A fish rots from the head, so it is commonly said. That is perfectly descriptive of the intricate reality in Cameroun where the country’s unprecedented decline cannot be divorced from the loss of political leadership. Oscar Wilde is correct to have observed that “With age comes wisdom, but sometimes age comes alone.” 43 years in power with no development gains to show for it is a testament that wisdom is not with the gerontocracy that governs Cameroun.
It is uncertain whether having the oldest serving president in the world is an impressive story to tell about any country. What is inexplicable is how, in spite of the complex and perverse socio-economic and political challenges the country is confronted with, a nonagenarian is “constitutionally” sanctioned to run for the 8th term of office and expected to fix the obdurate problems that could not be fixed in 43 solid years.
Not only has Biya crafted for himself a world record as the world’s longest-serving head of state and is still seeking another mandate, but he has become a national embarrassment, in many instances seen groping in high-level public events like an extra-terrestrial from the land of les mort-vivants. And his closest associates at the helm of government are not unlike the boss. Unfortunately, many a good Camerounian has had to take the pain of explaining to the rest of the world that in Cameroun, respect for elders is a virtue, including convincing an Indian Podcaster that Biya is just old but not “older than the atomic bomb, […]”.
It is worth drawing attention to the fact that after the aborted incident 1984, it became stringently illegal to try to change the government unconstitutionally. That may probably explain why, compared to Idi Amin, Mobutu Sese Seko, Muamar Qaddafi, and Robert Mugabe, among others, the international community and avid proponents of democracy and good governance have never found justification to brand Paul Biya with the title of dictator.
Electoral Dynamics and Youth Participation
What is even more inexplicable about politics in Cameroun is the drama, interestingly including the youth population with no career future, queuing up before TV cameras to give motions of support – materially and financially – for a dying king to stay in power. Beyond sensible thinking, they act out this drama not for any hope of a brighter future but in exchange for very low-quality CPDM-embroidered fabric, a loaf of stale bread, and a tin of probably expired sardines.
So, it might be that the problem in Cameroun is not Paul Biya seeking another mandate at 92. Maybe the problem is the citizens who do not want to let him go. The model of electoral politics in Cameroun is one that would shock the mind of any straightforward thinking, reasonable person to see that the electorate literally goes begging a presidential aspirant in a vegetable condition, to stay in power. Au Cameroun, en ce qui concerne la politique, c’est très souvent, du jamais vu.
An interesting expert opinion piece on the upcoming elections in Cameroun, titled “Paul Biya’s Eighth-Term Bid and the Death of Democratic Renewal in Cameroon”, raised the question whether democracy has ever truly been alive in Cameroun, let alone talk of the death of its renewal. Here is the historical truth: Amadou Ahidjo was handed over by France to Cameroun as a colonial legacy (not elected). He ruled through a coercive one-party system for 22 years with regular make-believe elections that produced standardised results, always ranging between 99.8 and 99.9 in favour of the incumbent (him). Ahidjo eventually handed over to Paul Biya the docile Camerounian population in 1982 as a political legacy (not elected). Biya simply continued with Ahidjo’s one-party governance paradigm, with the only reform being the change of the party in 1985 from Cameroun National Union (CNU) to Cameroun People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM).
Succumbing to popular sovereignty and the pressures of democratic change in the early 1990s, Biya reluctantly endorsed multi-party politics following the defiant launch of the SDF in May 1990. Surviving the heat of the 1992 presidential elections through a back-door victory occasioned by the Constitutional Council, Biya took pride in naming the post-1992 dispensation as la démocratie avancée (advanced democracy) even though scarred by clearly visible legitimacy deficits, governance insufficiencies, and democratic bankruptcy.
State of Democracy and Opposition
Multi-party politics in Cameroun has since been rendered lame and unproductive. Ask any political pundit, and they will tell you Biya is adept at beating his adversaries at their game, not excluding some of the brightest legal luminaries the country has ever had. To say there is democracy in Cameroun is an acceptable falsehood. Yes, periodic elections do happen. They are, however, nothing other than routine political rituals intended for ticking the boxes in the checklist of requirements for passing the democracy test.
In politics, miracles do not happen. It is a game of chess requiring strategic planning and creating long-term advantage. The Biya regime’s rigging arsenal has been in operation for over three decades and obviously gets better and better as it ages with experience. With repeated allegations of vote rigging at the close of every election and the same political actors still holding the plough, perhaps the rigging machinery is what needs thorough investigation and, if possible, a thorough recalibration of opposition strategy if there is any hope of political transition in Cameroun.
While it is uplifting to be positive, it is political suicide to hope for a miracle transition in Paul Biya’s Cameroun, without a radical change of strategy by all progressive forces, without leaving out any. To think otherwise is not only apparently naïf but also inconsequential to imagine that Biya will organise the upcoming election to lose and gracefully hand over power to the opposition. Peut-être, ça se fait ailleurs mais pas au Cameroun.
Predictable Patterns and Voter Behavior
It is common knowledge and probably has become customary political practice in Cameroun, dating back to the Ahidjo days, that, before elections are conducted, the results are already known. If anyone is expecting that long-established ritual and pattern in the electoral processes to suddenly change, such a person obviously does not know Cameroun well. The template for organising, conducting, and proclaiming election results in Cameroun has remained unchanged ever since the advent of multi-party politics in the 1990s and therefore, clearly predictable for anyone not to see the handwriting on the wall.
What is assuredly incontestable is that many sensible Camerounians of voting age will, owing to growing frustration and pent-up resentment deriving from decades of futile and unfulfilled promises, not be going to the polls in October with the indomitable conviction that the ballot box will change nothing. The ballot box has not changed the political landscape in Cameroun since independence in 1960; it will not change the political landscape in 2025. A radically different transition paradigm is the only hope for political salvation in Cameroun.
Conclusion
So, maybe the actual concern about the October elections is not really about Biya’s reticence to give up power. Maybe the dilemma is the paucity of strategy on the part of the fragile and deeply fractured opposition. Perhaps, strategising for the electoral challenge would require the full armoury of all progressive forces that are genuinely desirous of change in the God-forsaken country. It will entail going the extra mile beyond barefaced optimism about the opposition coalition, which has never really worked. Massive voter turnout is unlikely to shift the goalposts. In barely over a month to the elections, it is obviously too late to concoct any soft political strategy that can possibly unseat Biya. There is, however, no harm in advising that whatever the strategy, it must be extremely radical, just in case that works.
Expectations are running very high to above skin temperature levels and indeed, comprehensible given numerous stakeholder interests that have been aborted and/or frustrated, or maybe, just for the relief that a change may bring. The only assurance that can be taken to the bank with a full chest is that the October 12th elections will take place and, of course, like all other previous elections, will be monitored by credible independent election observers from all over.
The Constitutional Council will proclaim the results at the end of the exercise. Whether the proclamation will genuinely reflect the outcomes from the polling stations will not matter. What will matter is that the Constitutional Council’s proclamation will prevail as the official results, and that is not subject to appeal. Somehow, the independent observers will certify that the elections were free and fair, marked by minor election malpractices and irregularities. Maybe there will be some pockets of violent protests thereafter, contesting the Constitutional Council’s verdict. That will be heavily crushed with repressive force by the state security apparatus.
In conclusion, after 12 October 2025, a rendezvous will be taken for the next presidential election in 2032. It is difficult to speculate if by then, Biya will still be alive. He will probably still be around because, by his political calculation, Cameroun is destined to emerge in 2035. Hopefully, he will stay on to see that day. For those who might want to be cautiously pessimistic, be reminded that l’impossible n’est pas Camerounais. In Cameroun, everything is possible, not excluding a 9th bid for Paul Biya at age 99 when that time comes.
It is futile to worry about what you cannot change. For now, what is worth worrying about is the extremely complex and seemingly insurmountable dynamics that shape the political landscape in Cameroun. If anyone should explain the complexities, and you get to understand, then that person would not have explained properly.